Ali Javame

(Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba)

Mathematical Assessment Of The Role Of Pap Screening On HPV Transmission Dynamics

Date Monday, June 2, 2014

Human papillomavirus (HPV), a major sexually-transmitted disease, causes cervical cancer, in addition to numerous other cancers in females and males. This thesis uses mathematical modeling, theory and simulations to study the transmission dynamics of HPV, and associated dysplasia, in a community. A new deterministic model is designed and used to assess the population-level impact of Pap cytology screening on the transmission dynamics of the disease in a community. The model is rigorously analyzed for its dynamical features, vis-a-vis determining the conditions for the eff active control (or elimination) and persistence of the disease. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainties in the estimates of the parameter values used in the numerical simulations of the model is accounted for via uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Simulations of the model show that HPV transmission by individuals in the pre-cancerous stages increases HPV burden in the community.